Cavalry FC still sits first in the Canadian Premier League, but the cushion has disappeared and the warning lights are flashing.
A 2-2 draw with HFX Wanderers on Monday left Cavalry level with Forge FC on 54 points with two regular-season matches remaining. Calgary’s club holds first place on goal differential, plus-32 to Forge’s plus-26, after both teams moved to identical records of 16 wins, six draws and four losses.
That is the good news.
The bad news is Cavalry has gone three matches without a win, collecting one point from games against Atlético Ottawa, Inter Toronto and Halifax at the exact moment Forge has reeled it in. What looked like a firm grip on the CPL Shield is now a two-week sprint with no room for another stumble.
Cavalry can still settle the race itself. If Tommy Wheeldon Jr.’s side matches or betters Forge’s results over the final two rounds, its superior goal differential should keep it on top, provided the six-goal advantage survives. But the margin is thin enough that every goal now carries weight.
Forge’s win over Inter Toronto on Monday pushed the Hamilton club into first. Cavalry climbed back above it with its win in Halifax only because goal-differential is the third tiebreaker after total wins and head-to-head results. Both clubs have 16 victories, and their season series did not separate them. That makes the six-goal gap more than decorative: it is effectively Cavalry’s remaining lead.
A pair of wins would leave Cavalry on 60 points and force Forge to win twice while erasing that goal difference. Anything less invites the defending Shield winners from Hamilton to take advantage. First place also carries home-field priority in the playoffs and a berth in the 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup.
“It’s unfortunate that we tie this game here right now, but I’m not worried at all,” Cavalry striker Tobias Warschewski said to reporters. “I believe in these guys. The whole season we were producing magic. We have a bit of an aftertaste after this game, but no one has any fear that we won’t win the last two games.”
Fear was not evident Monday.
Jason Bahamboula put the Wanderers ahead in the sixth minute, looping a header over Cavalry goalkeeper Nathan Ingham after Miguel Arilla clipped a ball into the box. It was the second consecutive match in which Cavalry conceded in the sixth minute, an alarming habit for a team trying to close out a title.
Cavalry answered through Caniggia Elva in the 40th minute. HFX goalkeeper Marco Carducci parried Warschewski’s corner into Elva’s path, and the Saint Lucia international turned the loose ball home.
Ten minutes after halftime, another Warschewski corner produced another goal. This time, Ali Musse met the delivery and tapped Cavalry into a 2-1 lead. The assist was Warschewski’s 10th of the season, a CPL single-season record.
At that point, Cavalry was back atop the table and 35 minutes from escaping Halifax with the sort of gritty road victory title winners tend to collect.
Then the match turned.
Harry Paton was sent off for a poor challenge in the 77th minute, leaving Cavalry to defend its lead with 10 men. Halifax piled on pressure in the rain, and Thomas Meilleur-Giguère finally broke through two minutes into stoppage time, heading Ryan Telfer’s cross past Ingham.
The equalizer kept Halifax’s faint playoff hopes alive. It also turned two Cavalry points into vapour.
The late collapse should sting because Cavalry had recovered from another slow start and found a way in front. Instead, discipline opened the door and Halifax walked through it. In a Shield race this tight, those details are no longer small.
“This is in our hands. We get to control the destiny. We don’t have to worry about other results,” Wheeldon said. “We’ll just focus on Pacific next week, look at their strengths and how to stop them, look at their weaknesses and how to beat them. Playing in front of our own fans, having had three games on the road, will be exceptional. Much needed.”
Yes, the next test arrives Saturday at ATCO Field against Pacific FC. Cavalry then closes the regular season at home against Vancouver FC, while Forge finishes with two road matches after its Thanksgiving victory over Inter Toronto.
Two matches remain. Cavalry now has none to spare.
